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Home Astronomy research   Software Infrastructure:      MESA      FLASH-X      STARLIB      MESA-Web      starkiller-astro      My instruments   Neutrino Emission:      De-excitation Neutrinos      Neutrino emission from stars      Identifying the Pre-SN      Neutrino HR diagram      Pre-SN Beta Processes      Pre-SN neutrinos   White dwarf pulsations:      12C(α,γ) & overshooting      Probe of 12C(α,γ)16O      Impact of 22Ne      Impact of ν cooling      Variable white dwarfs      MC reaction rates      Micronovae      Novae   White dwarf supernova:      Stable nickel production      Remnant metallicities      Colliding white dwarfs      Merging white dwarfs      Ignition conditions      Metallicity effects      Central density effects      Detonation density      Tracer particle burning      Subsonic burning fronts      Supersonic fronts      W7 profiles   Massive stars:      Pop III with HST/JWST      Rotating progenitors      3D evolution to collapse      MC reaction rates      Pre-SN variations   Massive star supernova:      Yields of radionuclides      26Al & 60Fe      44Ti, 60Co & 56Ni      SN 1987A light curve      Constraints on Ni/Fe      An r-process      Effects of 12C +12C   Neutron Stars and Black Holes:      Black Hole spectrum      Mass Gap with LVK      Compact object IMF      He burn neutron stars   Stars:      Hypatia catalog      SAGB stars      Nugrid Yields I      He shell convection      BBFH at 40 years      γ-rays within 100 Mpc      Iron Pseudocarbynes   Pre-Solar Grains:      C-rich presolar grains      SiC Type U/C grains      Grains from massive stars      Placing the Sun      SiC Presolar grains   Chemical Evolution:      Radionuclides in 2020s      Zone models H to Zn      Mixing ejecta   Thermodynamics, Opacities & Networks      Radiative Opacity      Skye EOS      Helm EOS      Five EOSs      Equations of State      12C(α,γ)16O Rate      Proton-rich NSE      Reaction networks      Bayesian reaction rates   Verification Problems:      Validating an astro code      Su-Olson      Cog8      Mader      RMTV      Sedov      Noh Software Instruments AAS Journals    2025 AAS YouTube    2025 AAS Peer Review Workshops 2025 ASU Energy in Everyday Life 2025 MESA Classroom Other Stuff:    Bicycle Adventures    Illustrations    Presentations Contact: F.X.Timmes my one page vitae, full vitae, research statement, and teaching statement.	The Impact of Nuclear Reaction Rate Uncertainties On The Evolution of Core-Collapse Supernova Progenitors (2018) In this article we explore properties of core-collapse supernova progenitors with respect to the composite uncertainties in the thermonuclear reaction rates by coupling the reaction rate probability density functions provided by the STARLIB reaction rate library with MESA stellar models. We evolve 1000 15 M$_{\odot}$ models from the pre main-sequence to core O-depletion at solar and subsolar metallicities for a total of 2000 Monte Carlo stellar models. For each stellar model, we independently and simultaneously sample 665 thermonuclear reaction rates and use them in a MESA in situ reaction network that follows 127 isotopes from $^{1}$H to $^{64}$Zn. With this framework we survey the core mass, burning lifetime, composition, and structural properties at five different evolutionary epochs. At each epoch we measure the probability distribution function of the variations of each property and calculate Spearman Rank-Order Correlation coefficients for each sampled reaction rate to identify which reaction rate has the largest impact on the variations on each property. We find that uncertainties in $^{14}$N$(p,\gamma)^{15}$O, triple-$\alpha$, $^{12}$C$(\alpha,\gamma)^{16}$O, $^{12}$C($^{12}$C,p)$^{23}$Na, $^{12}$C($^{16}$O,p)$^{27}$Al, $^{16}$O($^{16}$O,n)$^{31}$S, $^{16}$O($^{16}$O,p)$^{31}$P, and $^{16}$O($^{16}$O,$\alpha$)$^{28}$Si reaction rates dominate the variations of the properties surveyed. We find that variations induced by uncertainties in nuclear reaction rates grow with each passing phase of evolution, and at core H-, He-depletion are of comparable magnitude to the variations induced by choices of mass resolution and network resolution. However, at core C-, Ne-, and O-depletion, the reaction rate uncertainties can dominate the variation causing uncertainty in various properties of the stellar model in the evolution towards iron core-collapse.